🔺 Thinking in Systems, Blame vs. Accountability, and Culture of Continuous Learning and Advancement

Thinking in terms of systems and system dynamics is a different way of thinking and perceiving the world. In many ways it is a paradigm shift from the traditional linear, cause and effect, sequential forms of thinking. Systems thinking focuses on the whole, the behavior of the whole under certain sets of conditions, and theContinue reading “🔺 Thinking in Systems, Blame vs. Accountability, and Culture of Continuous Learning and Advancement”

🔺 Why Asset Price Inflation Alone Will Not Lead to an Inflation of Goods and Services

There is the financial economy and the real economy. The two are typically tethered together, however, as a result of the Covid-19 induced recession, it is apparent that there is a disconnect between the real and financial economies given the disparity in GDP, unemployment, SME/Corporate bankruptcies on the one hand, and rising asset prices onContinue reading “🔺 Why Asset Price Inflation Alone Will Not Lead to an Inflation of Goods and Services”

🔺 CAPM Prices Relative Volatility, Not Business Risk

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) tries to price the risk of an asset, particularly for stocks, and simultaneously becomes the expected rate of return, required rate of return, hurdle rate, and the discount rate. In other words, an investor would not invest in the asset unless the expected return on the asset was at-or-aboveContinue reading “🔺 CAPM Prices Relative Volatility, Not Business Risk”

🔺 Risk, Uncertainty, and Managing Uncertainty

Risk and uncertainty are often used interchangeably for as the cone of uncertainty increases the further out into the future we proceed, so does the probability of a negative expected outcome. However, risk is merely a subset of uncertainty for uncertainty includes both positive and negative outcomes. That being said, many of the risk modelsContinue reading “🔺 Risk, Uncertainty, and Managing Uncertainty”

Protected: 🔺 Part 1: Algorithms, Machine Learning, and Future of Predictive Analytics

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🔺Covid 19: Herd Immunity, Vaccines, Preventative Measures, and Country Models

There are roughly 22 million confirmed Covid-19 cases globally, 13 million have recovered, and 800,000 have died. As a percentage of the total population, the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases is only 0.2% of the global population. In percentage terms this seems inconsequential and not a cause for concern on the surface. In fact, byContinue reading “🔺Covid 19: Herd Immunity, Vaccines, Preventative Measures, and Country Models”

Protected: 🔺 Part 1: Why the Probability has Increased that Phase 2 of US-China Trade Deal Will Breakdown and the Current Wedge Facing Our Country

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🔺By Design, Unemployment Benefits Do Not Incentivize Unemployment

There is a general misunderstanding among large swaths of the populace who believe that people receive unemployment benefits that are greater than what they earn if they were working which incentivizes further unemployment. By design, unemployment benefits are a part of the social safety net and do not incentivize further unemployment. For starters, without lookingContinue reading “🔺By Design, Unemployment Benefits Do Not Incentivize Unemployment”

🔺New Model: Calculating Minimum Wage and Poverty Line

In the context of earning a wage for a living, the ability to increase one’s wages is a function of 1. Career Advancement, 2. Horizontal Job Moves, 3. Vertical Job Moves and/or 4. Seniority/Loyalty Promotions. Ideally and in theory, an individual will advance as far as their Skillset will take them until they rise toContinue reading “🔺New Model: Calculating Minimum Wage and Poverty Line”

🔺 Part 1: Some Start-Up Tips for Obtaining Funding

It is estimated that it costs roughly $80,000 to operate a business in its first year. That being said, most entrepreneurs obtain their initial funding from self-funds, and/or family and friends which is typically $10,000 or less. Considering the initial upfront costs coupled with expectations for growth or cash shortfalls, entrepreneurs will need to obtainContinue reading “🔺 Part 1: Some Start-Up Tips for Obtaining Funding”

Protected: 🔺Creation and Implications of a Military Industrial Complex

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🔺Scaling, Perspective, and World Trade Organization Importance

Perspective is very important. However, if you ever studied fractal geometry, you realize quite quickly that perspective at times is one and the same. Fractal geometry shows that at various scales (big and small), you can’t tell the difference because the dynamics are the same. This is unique because I typically prefer a top-down perspectiveContinue reading “🔺Scaling, Perspective, and World Trade Organization Importance”

🔺Part 1: Vertical, Horizontal, Complimentary, Geographic, Strategic and Growth Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) & Synergy vs. Fake Synergy

Overview

Companies pursue Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) for many reasons with the oft quoted rationale being synergies. Therein lies the problem. There are only so many reasons to pursue M&A and those reasons have to create actual synergies, not merely being cloaked within the term synergy.

Protected: 🔺 New Model: 5-Part, Holistic, Dynamic & Multifactored Healthcare Model to Reduce Costs (Diagrams Included)

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Protected: 🔺 New Model: Top-Down/Bottoms-Up Human Resource Allocation Model

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🔺More than an Education System, Misallocation of Human Capital, Top-Down/Bottoms-Up Disconnect between Human Allocation/Tools Provided vs. Needed & Build-Up of Student Debt

The education system is so much more than merely an education system. In fact, it serves many different purposes. For example, in the early years, the education system acts as the parents when the parents are not present (especially in broken households – even more important). The education system also serves as an allocator of human capital while fostering a foundation for critical thinking and providing students with the tools necessary for the future. However, due to structural factors in the education system and the pace at which the world changes, there can be a disconnect between human allocation/tools needed and provided, leading to misallocation. This misallocation can cause 1) Students to obtain degrees they do not utilize, 2) Over emphasis on obtaining more education, 3) Over emphasis on attending more prestigious schools, 4) Meaningful student debt due to frictions and 5) A disconnect between the human resources/tools that are needed versus provided.

Protected: 🔺How the Economy Works, New Credit Creation, Borrowing vs. New Credit Creation, Velocity of Money, Real vs. Financial Economy, & The Catch-22 of Leveraging/De-Leveraging

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🔺What is Democracy, Types of Democracies, Why All Governance Systems (8 Democracies, Monarchy, Authoritarianism, and No Governance) Require the Greatest Good for the Greatest Number (Utilitarian Principle), Democracy is Not Capitalism, & Democracy vs. Capitalism – Who Wins?

The definition of a democracy (noun) is: A system of government by the whole population or all of the eligible members of a state typically through elected representatives. Despite the defintion and constant repitition of the phrase democracy, it is important to be distinct and to state what type of democracy is being advocated asContinue reading “🔺What is Democracy, Types of Democracies, Why All Governance Systems (8 Democracies, Monarchy, Authoritarianism, and No Governance) Require the Greatest Good for the Greatest Number (Utilitarian Principle), Democracy is Not Capitalism, & Democracy vs. Capitalism – Who Wins?”

🔺 “Caveat Emptor” Lacks Accountability and Serves No Purpose

If left to its own devices, the private sector can act in such a way so as to only benefit itself at the expense of others creating A Tragedy of the Commons – examples abound. Moreover, it is in the inherent interest of the private sector to advocate for laws, policies, and regulations that benefit its own self interest if left unchecked as this invariably leads to greater profitability via gaming the system to its advantage via regulatory capture. However, such actions in the aggregate when viewed from a Fallacy of Composition perspective reveals this creates negative externalities and spill over effects resulting in a deadweight loss on society that is absorbed by everyone collectively. This brings me to the notion of Caveat Emptor or Buyer Beware.

Protected: 🔺 New Model Part 1: Perpetual Motion Energy Device – Prototype 1 (Includes Diagram)

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