🔺 Thinking in Systems, Blame vs. Accountability, and Culture of Continuous Learning and Advancement

Thinking in terms of systems and system dynamics is a different way of thinking and perceiving the world. In many ways it is a paradigm shift from the traditional linear, cause and effect, sequential forms of thinking. Systems thinking focuses on the whole, the behavior of the whole under certain sets of conditions, and theContinue reading “🔺 Thinking in Systems, Blame vs. Accountability, and Culture of Continuous Learning and Advancement”

🔺 Why Asset Price Inflation Alone Will Not Lead to an Inflation of Goods and Services

There is the financial economy and the real economy. The two are typically tethered together, however, as a result of the Covid-19 induced recession, it is apparent that there is a disconnect between the real and financial economies given the disparity in GDP, unemployment, SME/Corporate bankruptcies on the one hand, and rising asset prices onContinue reading “🔺 Why Asset Price Inflation Alone Will Not Lead to an Inflation of Goods and Services”

🔺 CAPM Prices Relative Volatility, Not Business Risk

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) tries to price the risk of an asset, particularly for stocks, and simultaneously becomes the expected rate of return, required rate of return, hurdle rate, and the discount rate. In other words, an investor would not invest in the asset unless the expected return on the asset was at-or-aboveContinue reading “🔺 CAPM Prices Relative Volatility, Not Business Risk”

🔺 Risk, Uncertainty, and Managing Uncertainty

Risk and uncertainty are often used interchangeably for as the cone of uncertainty increases the further out into the future we proceed, so does the probability of a negative expected outcome. However, risk is merely a subset of uncertainty for uncertainty includes both positive and negative outcomes. That being said, many of the risk modelsContinue reading “🔺 Risk, Uncertainty, and Managing Uncertainty”

Protected: 🔺 Part 1: Algorithms, Machine Learning, and Future of Predictive Analytics

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🔺Covid 19: Herd Immunity, Vaccines, Preventative Measures, and Country Models

There are roughly 22 million confirmed Covid-19 cases globally, 13 million have recovered, and 800,000 have died. As a percentage of the total population, the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases is only 0.2% of the global population. In percentage terms this seems inconsequential and not a cause for concern on the surface. In fact, byContinue reading “🔺Covid 19: Herd Immunity, Vaccines, Preventative Measures, and Country Models”

Protected: 🔺 Part 1: Why the Probability has Increased that Phase 2 of US-China Trade Deal Will Breakdown and the Current Wedge Facing Our Country

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🔺By Design, Unemployment Benefits Do Not Incentivize Unemployment

There is a general misunderstanding among large swaths of the populace who believe that people receive unemployment benefits that are greater than what they earn if they were working which incentivizes further unemployment. By design, unemployment benefits are a part of the social safety net and do not incentivize further unemployment. For starters, without lookingContinue reading “🔺By Design, Unemployment Benefits Do Not Incentivize Unemployment”

🔺New Model: Calculating Minimum Wage and Poverty Line

In the context of earning a wage for a living, the ability to increase one’s wages is a function of 1. Career Advancement, 2. Horizontal Job Moves, 3. Vertical Job Moves and/or 4. Seniority/Loyalty Promotions. Ideally and in theory, an individual will advance as far as their Skillset will take them until they rise toContinue reading “🔺New Model: Calculating Minimum Wage and Poverty Line”

🔺 US Property Management Industry (Simplified)

The property management industry is complex, but in simple terms you want to increase rents where possible, increase lease renewals, maintain high occupancy levels, be highly efficient, build relationships, provide exceptional customer service, and ruthlessly keep costs down. There are roughly 300,000 property management companies in the United States. The addressable market size is nearlyContinue reading “🔺 US Property Management Industry (Simplified)”

🔺 The Benefits of Creating an Innovative Culture

An innovative culture allows an enterprise to be more anticipatory as opposed to reactive in nature. Being anticipatory is a competitive advantage against the backdrop of faster change and disruption occurring around us as a result of computing power, bandwith, and digital storage. Amid increased change and uncertainty it is no longer enough to 1.Continue reading “🔺 The Benefits of Creating an Innovative Culture”

🔺 Part 1: Some Start-Up Tips for Obtaining Funding

It is estimated that it costs roughly $80,000 to operate a business in its first year. That being said, most entrepreneurs obtain their initial funding from self-funds, and/or family and friends which is typically $10,000 or less. Considering the initial upfront costs coupled with expectations for growth or cash shortfalls, entrepreneurs will need to obtainContinue reading “🔺 Part 1: Some Start-Up Tips for Obtaining Funding”

🔺Venture Capital, Bottlenecks, Frequency vs. Magnitude, and “Unicorns”

For simplicity, venture capitalists invest in the future. They invest their money, time, and resources in future management, technology and ideas with the hopes of generating a return for their investors and themselves upon a liquidity event. Venture capitalists are able to reduce risks by pooling their capital and resources with other venture capitalists. TheContinue reading “🔺Venture Capital, Bottlenecks, Frequency vs. Magnitude, and “Unicorns””

🔺New Model Part 2: UPC/Pricing Label Printer and Scanning Gun

Many products have a UPC bar code that can be scanned into a computer database which is regularly updated to reflect price changes. Most stores require scanning every product first and feeding this data into a database which takes into account inventory levels to then update prices. From there, a rolodex of pricing labels areContinue reading “🔺New Model Part 2: UPC/Pricing Label Printer and Scanning Gun”

🔺Underpinnings of Private Equity (Simplified)

Private equity (PE) has been an attractive investment class stemming from strong returns and diversification. For simplicity, private equity buys businesses, grows businesses, and sells businesses. The difference between the price paid and sold for the businesses is how private equity makes money and generates a return. Private equity typically takes a controlling interest inContinue reading “🔺Underpinnings of Private Equity (Simplified)”

Protected: 🔺Creation and Implications of a Military Industrial Complex

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🔺Scaling, Perspective, and World Trade Organization Importance

Perspective is very important. However, if you ever studied fractal geometry, you realize quite quickly that perspective at times is one and the same. Fractal geometry shows that at various scales (big and small), you can’t tell the difference because the dynamics are the same. This is unique because I typically prefer a top-down perspectiveContinue reading “🔺Scaling, Perspective, and World Trade Organization Importance”

🔺Part 1: Vertical, Horizontal, Complimentary, Geographic, Strategic and Growth Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) & Synergy vs. Fake Synergy

Overview

Companies pursue Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) for many reasons with the oft quoted rationale being synergies. Therein lies the problem. There are only so many reasons to pursue M&A and those reasons have to create actual synergies, not merely being cloaked within the term synergy.

Protected: 🔺 New Model: 5-Part, Holistic, Dynamic & Multifactored Healthcare Model to Reduce Costs (Diagrams Included)

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Protected: 🔺 New Model: Top-Down/Bottoms-Up Human Resource Allocation Model

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🔺More than an Education System, Misallocation of Human Capital, Top-Down/Bottoms-Up Disconnect between Human Allocation/Tools Provided vs. Needed & Build-Up of Student Debt

The education system is so much more than merely an education system. In fact, it serves many different purposes. For example, in the early years, the education system acts as the parents when the parents are not present (especially in broken households – even more important). The education system also serves as an allocator of human capital while fostering a foundation for critical thinking and providing students with the tools necessary for the future. However, due to structural factors in the education system and the pace at which the world changes, there can be a disconnect between human allocation/tools needed and provided, leading to misallocation. This misallocation can cause 1) Students to obtain degrees they do not utilize, 2) Over emphasis on obtaining more education, 3) Over emphasis on attending more prestigious schools, 4) Meaningful student debt due to frictions and 5) A disconnect between the human resources/tools that are needed versus provided.

Protected: 🔺How the Economy Works, New Credit Creation, Borrowing vs. New Credit Creation, Velocity of Money, Real vs. Financial Economy, & The Catch-22 of Leveraging/De-Leveraging

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🔺What is Democracy, Types of Democracies, Why All Governance Systems (8 Democracies, Monarchy, Authoritarianism, and No Governance) Require the Greatest Good for the Greatest Number (Utilitarian Principle), Democracy is Not Capitalism, & Democracy vs. Capitalism – Who Wins?

The definition of a democracy (noun) is: A system of government by the whole population or all of the eligible members of a state typically through elected representatives. Despite the defintion and constant repitition of the phrase democracy, it is important to be distinct and to state what type of democracy is being advocated asContinue reading “🔺What is Democracy, Types of Democracies, Why All Governance Systems (8 Democracies, Monarchy, Authoritarianism, and No Governance) Require the Greatest Good for the Greatest Number (Utilitarian Principle), Democracy is Not Capitalism, & Democracy vs. Capitalism – Who Wins?”

🔺 “Caveat Emptor” Lacks Accountability and Serves No Purpose

If left to its own devices, the private sector can act in such a way so as to only benefit itself at the expense of others creating A Tragedy of the Commons – examples abound. Moreover, it is in the inherent interest of the private sector to advocate for laws, policies, and regulations that benefit its own self interest if left unchecked as this invariably leads to greater profitability via gaming the system to its advantage via regulatory capture. However, such actions in the aggregate when viewed from a Fallacy of Composition perspective reveals this creates negative externalities and spill over effects resulting in a deadweight loss on society that is absorbed by everyone collectively. This brings me to the notion of Caveat Emptor or Buyer Beware.

Protected: 🔺 New Model Part 1: Perpetual Motion Energy Device – Prototype 1 (Includes Diagram)

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🔺 Pace of Hyper-Globalization as Analog for Automation, Forced Displacement, Social Safety Net, and Job Placement/Transitions

I read an article by Paul Krugman describing the impacts of hyper-globalization and how that impact is largely behind us meaning continued globalization is unlikely to have the same impact as it did before in terms of seeing industries completely vanish in the United States. This suggests that from an S-Curve function perspective globalization is on a more mature phase of development considering the degree of saturation.

Protected: 🔺Part 1: Subsidies should Spawn Strategic or New Industries, Not Support a Below-or-Equal to Cost/Comparative Advantage Market Price for Commodities

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🔺 The Interchangeable Relationship Between Crytpocurrency Conversion and Investment Value/Perception while Delineating Speculation

In general, cryptocurrencies and blockchain have certain features such as transparency, encryption, safe contracts, built-in trust protocol, etc. that are quite favorable which can increase efficiency, reduce layered costs, etc.

Protected: 🔺Model: Negotiation and Not Compromising into Sequenced/Co-Dependency Problems

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🔺 The Scientific Method and Why Failure Does Not Exist – it is Simply Feedback

The scientific method is a process for solving problems. The typical scientific method is a 7-step iterative process consisting of: 1. Making an Observation, 2. Asking a Question, 3. Doing Background Research, 4. Forming a Hypothesis, 5. Conducting an Experiment, 6. Analyzing Results and Drawing a Conclusion and 7. Reporting/Sharing Results. If the results are different than the hypothesis, a new hypothesis is created and the iterative process begins again. Does the scientific method have shortcomings, sure, particularly when variables interacting create a new variable for which the control cannot be tested. Even so, beyond being a process, the scientific method ultimately shows that there is no such thing as failure, rather, failure is simply a feedback mechanism and can be likened in many ways to bumper bowling.

🔺The 3 Ways To Extract Money from/7 Key Fundamentals of the Property Markets and Underpinnings of 2007-2008 Housing Crisis

In its simplest form, there are only three fundamental ways to extract money from the property markets: 1. Sell, 2. Rent, or 3. Borrowing against the Equity. Those fundamentals are largely driven by seven key fundamentals: 1. Demographics, 2. Household Formation Rates, 3. Rising Incomes, 4. Zoning Policies, 5. Immigration, 6. Foreign Capital and 7. Underwriting Standards. Those seven fundamentals largely drive supply and demand for property. But, the 2007-2008 housing crisis led many to believe that financial engineering and securitization obviated those principles, which was untrue. While not the primary cause per se, it was one of the leading factors to the 2007-2008 financial crisis discussed below.

Protected: Model: 🔺Attraction Event Model = (((Attraction Event Pool + Sieve + (X)Factors + ((Conversion x (Donors/Sponsors + Strategic Connections + Members + Leads) + Positive Feedback Loop)))

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🔺Market Structure Asymmetry, Information Flows/Asymmetries, Sell-Side Catch-22’s and How this Limits Current Valuation Models

Market Structure:
The underlying structure of the stock market is asymmetrical in nature and structured in such a way that there is more of an upward bias as it is easier to buy a stock than it is to short-sell a stock. This is on purpose and largely due to two factors 1). The fundamental role the stock market is supposed to play in terms of capital formation via IPOs (although most start-ups exit via the private market – private equity uses debt – bit of a misnomer) and 2). Maintaining support for the dollar vis-a-vis finacialization. The higher, more liquid, and less volatile the market, the more companies tend to IPO. Yet, when the sole purpose becomes the management of expectations via repitition to maintain confidence at the expense of fundamentals, it becomes nothing more than a confidence game. If the stock market was structured symmetrically, the ability to buy would be just as easy as it is to sell. Not only is the structure of the market asymmetrical, so is the flow of information.

🔺Why of Course! However, there is a Catch……..22

Anybody who has ever had to make a decision (basically everyone on the planet) will eventually encounter the insidious Catch-22. What is this Catch-22 you speak of? Glad you asked. Well, let’s refer to our trusted friend Webster:

🔺A 50% Gain Doesn’t Equate to Breaking-Even on a 50% Loss

One of the most important and often forgotton concepts is the percentage relationship between gains and losses. Why is it so important? Because the relationship is non-linear. Therefore, required gains to break-even grow exponentially as losses increase in percentage terms.

🔺Businesses are Innovations in and of Themselves and Job Creators

The basic underpinnings of the economic model are such that businesses start off small as a simple idea and, if successful, grow to typically become larger, incorporated businesses that are either private or public in nature with the residual benefit accruing to the owners (not necessarily the founders.) Moreover, at various stages of development when seed or growth capital is needed in excess of a company’s revenue, the option exists to attract capital via the private or public markets (most deals are done in the private markets ). Yet, it is the aforementioned structure in and of itself that can stifle job creation and innovation.

🔺All Investors Make Investments with the Expectation to Make Money – Otherwise they Wouldn’t Make the Investment in the First Place

All investors make investments with the underlying expectation to make money, otherwise, they would not make the investment in the first place. This is precisely why there should not be any delineation in style between value and growth investing as both styles fundamentally are being made with the expectation to make money.

🔺A Biological Approach to Finance and Economics

Nature is an extraordinarily great teacher to learn from. However, all to often, it seems humans view themselves as separate and distinct from nature rather than realize we are a part of nature, causing us to not discern its lessons. There are many models from nature and biology that can be applied to finance, although I am simply focusing on self-regulating properties and ecosystems.

Protected: 🔺New Model: The Dynamics of and a 11 Factor Model for Inflation

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🔺A Businesses’ Greatest Costs are Intangible in Nature

When I think about the title “A Businesses’ Greatest Costs are Intangible in Nature,” I also think about Albert Einstein’s saying, “Not Everything that Counts can be Counted and Not Everything that can be Counted Counts.”

🔺Interplay and Limitations Between Age Cohorts, Investment Needs, Search for Yield, and Institutional Confines

There is a unique interplay between the distribution of age cohorts, the investment needs of those age cohorts, the search for Yield, and corresponding institutional confines that limit the investment opportunity set.

🔺New Model: Impacts of Forced Displacement and Built-In Solution

A countries’ development is merely a spectrum. That developmental spectrum can follow the developmental stages of other countries or the developing country can leapfrog based on 1. Its understanding of how other countries developed; 2. Its own unique dynamics and/or 3. Technological advances. As countries become more developed, there is less of a need to move to relatively more developed countries to improve standards of living which naturally slows immigration flows and is the built-in mechanism of shared prosperity.

Protected: 🔺Why I Believe the United States Administration Did Not Take the Global Lead in Climate Change or Renewable Technologies to its Detriment

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🔺Putting Depreciation of the Yuan in Perspective and the Folly of Global Currency Depreciation

At the outset, it is important to understand the fallacy of composition regarding the depreciation of global currencies to gain an illusory export advantage. If a country weakens its currency, it will gain an export advantage, all else equal. However, nothing operates in a vacuum. When other countries depreciate their currencies to gain an export advantage, the advantage becomes obsolete and you are back at square one. The next iteration of global currency depreciation becomes a transient advantage until  becoming obsolete and ending back at square one again – the dynamic occurs in each iteration.

🔺Ineffectiveness of the United States Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (USTCJA)

In a general sense, the larger and more bloated a government becomes from a combination of reckless fiscal spending, unsound monetary policy, and oppressive laws, the more that government will have to increase taxes on citizens, goods/services, other countries, or financial markets.

Protected: 🔺The 11 Factors to China’s Rise to Prominence on the World Stage

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Protected: 🔺Implications of Global Protectionism, Why Negative Yielding Bonds Will Never Increase Spending

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